As
short-lived as it may seem, Y2K has all but taken over. As quickly
as it came up, it should be over, yet companies now have employees
whose full time occupation is Y2K. For the most part, we have
resisted the temptation to jump into the fray. However, we have
collected so many references to the matter that we thought you
might enjoy a peek.
For example, in the May 1999 issue of The Rotarian magazine is
a cartoon by Glasbergen of two squirrels seated on the limb of
a tree. One squirrel comments to his buddy, as he stashes more
nuts into a hole in the tree, "The Y2K thing probably won't
affect us, but I'm stockpiling extra nuts just in case!"
That may qualify as the best word pun in the plethora of Y2K panic.
Probably the most intuitive article that I have read on the subject
is one by Thomas Wilscam printed in the April issue of KMWorld,
entitled "Y2K: The perfect scapegoat?" Think about it.
While Wilscam's article addresses mainly issues of the Knowledge
Management field, the same logic may apply to anyone facing Y2K:
It can be used by corporate leadership as a reason to delay implementation
of new programs or major purchases; It can be used to justify
termination of programs that management finds in disfavor or unprofitable;
It can be used to explain shortfalls or marketing strategies that
are deemed unsuccessful; In short, Y2K may be blamed, with just
a little creative thought, for almost any negative occurrence
either this year or next. After that, you're on your own.
The following pages contain Y2K articles and comments gleaned
from a variety of sources. We have no opinion on the validity
or thoughtfulness of any of the insights, we just present them
for your entertainment. Feel free to contact us with some doozies
of your own.
---Y2K---
This humorous (but somewhat lengthy) story was submitted by Roy
Kirkham of the PULSE Computer Users Group. "Dear Cassius:
Are you still working on the Y zero K problem? This change from
BC to AD is giving us a lot of headaches and we haven't much time
left. I don't know how people will cope with working the wrong
way around. Having been working happily downwards forever, now
we have to start thinking upwards. You would think that someone
would have thought of it earlier and not left it to us to sort
it all out at this last minute.
"I spoke to Caesar the other evening. He was livid that Julius
hadn't done something about it when he was sorting out the calendar.
He said he could see why Brutus turned nasty. We called in Consultus,
but he simply said that continuing downwards using minus BC won't
work and as usual charged a fortune for doing nothing useful.
Surely we will not have to throw out all our hardware and start
again?
"Macrohard will make yet another fortune out of this I suppose.
"The money lenders are paranoid of course! They have been
told that all usury rates will invert and they will have to pay
their clients to take out loans. It's an ill wind...
As for myself, I just can't see the sand in an hourglass flowing
upwards. We have heard that there are three wise men in the East
who have been working on the problem, but unfortunately they won't
arrive until it's all over.
"I have heard that there are plans to stable all horses at
midnight at the turn of the year as there are fears that they
will stop and try to run backwards, causing damage to chariots
and possible loss of life.
Some say the world will cease to exist at the moment of transition.
Anyway, we are still continuing to work on this Y zero K problem.
I will send a parchment to you if anything further develops.
"If you have any ideas please let me know.
"Plutonius."
---Y2K---
From the April 22 issue of Daily Shipping News comes word that
the hydroelectric dams in the Northwest are ready, "even
if Y2K came today." The Army Corps of Engineers Y2K project
manager said systems throughout the Seattle-controlled district
are 95 percent Y2K compliant and will be 100 percent by July.
Buried in the long report is the following statement: "The
hydroelectric system is ready now because it is not dependent
on computers. It can be run on a scheduled basis by hand, using
water that will continue to flow, of course, irrespective of the
date, as it has for centuries."...... and the next paragraph
provides two potential "hiccups" in this steady flow:
dumb people tricks and a dog with a bone. "People will do
dumb things like shutting off all their appliances and restarting
them when New Year's arrives. Dumb people tricks can cause surges
and fluctuations in the power for short periods." The second
hiccup predicted by the article is that some people "don't
want to believe in American ingenuity to fix things. Y2K is the
biggest adventure they can imagine, and they don't want to give
up."
---Y2K---
In the "Not Enough to Worry About" Department, we place
an article appearing in the April issue of Logistics magazine.
It states, "While most businesses are preoccupied with the
Year 2000 problems that may occur on Jan. 1, companies that do
business with Mexico should be preparing for the end of next year,
when Mexican president Ernesto Zedillo will complete his six-year
term. That's the word from Dr. Deborah Riner, chief economist
for the American Chamber of Commerce in Mexico. Why does that
matter? 'Historically, the ends of ... presidential terms have
been times of economic problems, such as currency devaluations,
inflation, unemployment, and so forth,' she told an audience at
last month's Transporte Internacional conference in Monterrey,
Mexico. With economic instability spreading throughout Latin America,
she warns, history could well repeat itself as Zedillo's term
winds down."
---Y2K---
From the March 16 issue of Daily Shipping News is an article datelined
from Arlington Virginia about a Gallup Poll. "While a growing
number of Americans appear to have less overall concern from possible
Year 2000 problems than those polled three months ago, concern
remains high over air travel and financial account accuracy, according
to a new Gallup poll conducted this past weekend.
"The nationwide telephone poll, done in partnership with
the National Science Foundation and USA Today, surveyed 1,021
adults between March 5 and 7.
The poll, with a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage
points, is a slightly shorter version of a poll conducted in December
1998. Identical questions and wording wording were used in all
questions contained in both polls.
The updated poll showed that a higher percentage of Americans
were now aware of the Y2K issue, and the more that happens, the
less the public believes major issues might hurt them.
Other significant findings include the following:
· Nearly one-quarter of those polled believe Y2K computer
problems will last only a few days, up from only 15 percent in
the previous poll
· 54 percent say they will avoid traveling on airplanes
around the millennium change, up from 47 percent in the previous
poll.
· 55 percent still say that banking and accounting systems
will fail, down from 63 percent in the previous poll.
And yet - · 36 percent, up from 26 percent in the previous
poll, say they will stockpile food and water in case of emergency.
---Y2K---
The April 26 issue of Infoworld magazine presents a listing of
Websites and articles with predictions for Y2K:
·Doomsday scenarios may be found at www.webleyweb.com/y2k/y2k/html
· The author of a book called Time Bomb 2000 says that
we are going to suffer a year of technological disruptions followed
by a decade of depression.
· A newsletter publisher with a Website at www.garynorth.com
predicts that railroads, banks, public utilities, military communications
and financial markets will go down.
These gloomy predictions are followed by a statement that a representative
from a firm called the Garter Group had predicted that "the
additional y2K costs of lost business, product compliance, business
modification, bailouts, bankruptcies, municipal deficiencies and
litigation is expected to account for between $150 and $225 billion
in the United States alone."
---Y2K---
From the Scientific American January, 1999 issue comes reference
to children's literature: Lewis Carroll's Alice in Wonderland
and the reasoning why programmers chose to represent years by
using just two digits, 55 for 1955 and 10/23/76 for October 23,
1976, for example.
From Alice he extracts her answer that her watch does not indicate
the year because it "stays the same year for such a long
time together," a statement he later dubs "Tea Party
Logic." This is followed by his opinion that space and time
conservation have resulted in ambiguous computer date handling.
"Decades ago digital real estate was scarce: computer memory
was expensive and typical punch cards were only 80 columns wide.
People also rationalized the shortcut by citing the efficiency
of reduced keystrokes."
The article gives many examples of Y2K problems that have already
occurred. Some are humorous, like the centenarian who received
and invitation to attend Kindergarten, and some are not, like
the cancellation of insurance policies due to a regular system
of purging records that have been inactive. A computer might interpret
a policy that has a renewal date after the year 2000 as one that
has been inactive for almost a century.
---Y2K---
An article in the January/February 1999 issue of the Skeptical
Inquirer is titled, Apocalypse Soon. The article begins with the
following phrase, "Some say the world will end by ice, others
say by fire, and still others say by computer glitches."
The article compares the Y2K scare to alien invasion hysteria
of years past. The author's Web page for UFOs and other skeptical
subjects is at http:www.debunker.com.
---Y2K---
The February 1999 issue of Printing Impressions magazine contains
an article titled, The Y2K Bug Is Upon Us. The author, Erik Cagle
describes Y2K as a "nasty little pest that is as obvious
as the clock in the upper right hand corner of your computer or
as subtle as a chip embedded deep within your most critical mechanism"
and states that the "Y2K bug could raise a lot of hell for
those whose lives revolve around the digital age..."
The author does consult some experts for his article. "The
only thing we know for sure is that something will happen,"
says William M. Ulrich, president of Tactical Strategy Group and
a Y2K advisor to major corporations and government agencies. "There's
been a lot of misinformation, and that misinformation continues
to be thrust upon us. We hear,'Don't worry, everything's fine,'
and months later we find out that is not the case."
---Y2K---
Last, but not least, comes some tidy practical Y2K advice from
the May, 1999 issue of Imaging magazine. The Tips& traps section
written by Lowell Raraport includes a small section which asks,
"Is your App Y2K compliant?" "Here are four simple
rules software must follow to be considered Y2K compliant.
"1. No valid value for current date will cause an interruption
in operation.
"2. Database functionality must behave consistently for dates
prior to, during and after Year 2000.
"3. The century in any date must be specified either explicitly
or by unambiguous algorithms or inferencing rules.
"4. Year 2000 must be recognized as a leap year."
Hopefully you have had a little fun and learned a little something.
Johan Rindegard has written an article about key
developments to watch in the coming years. The article did not
explain many of the terms for those of us who are not computer
programmers, so I have added some layman's definitions below the
terms, with the help of supporters from Clatsop Community College,
Tongue Point Job Corps and the Community Information Center. Some
of the terms are fairly familiar, others I had never heard of
before. Let me know what you think.
1. Internet Commerce
Doing business online is now a fairly common/growing occurrence.
2. Higher Bandwidth
This is something addressed with Link Shadley's article on page
12. It is noted as by Rindegard's article as having the highest
impact on the most people.
3. Security
So far there is no foolproof method of securing information across
the internet. Many companies are making software to answer the
challenge, and you can find an equal number of horror stories
floating around about glitches in the system.
4. Extensible Markup Language (XML)
XML is a simple, flexible, text-based format designed to meet
the challenges of large-scale electronic publishing. It is predicted
to play an increasingly important role in the exchange of a wide
variety of data on the World Wide Web. One of its capabilities
is to provide metadata - data about information - that will help
people find information and help information producers and consumers
find each other.
5. Wireless Networking
The goal of this technology is to "create ubiquity for everyone
to communicate anytime, anywhere." This is defined as the
key to leveraging all communications over the Internet. Another
part is putting up an antenna on a building for full internet
connections through a radio signal. The third part is to put a
small radio transceiver in your home, to work with laptop or palm
pilot or any device you can put in your home and carry around
without stringing wires.
6. Portable Devices
Portable devices, combined with wireless technology will bring
us the concept of "always on." They are called "utilitarian
appliances," and are defined as the way of the future. A
palm pilot, laptop computer or the newspad.
7. Set-top box technology
An example would be Web TV, a box that connects in with cable
or satellite, through something other than the telephone to provide
internet access or high download time. In addition, it might be
the video cameras that are part of the article on page 11. According
to the article, this technology will allow programmers to introduce
true interactivity to the viewing experience.
8. Photonics
Photons use light instead of electrons or the transmission, switching
and processing of information, can be done in a cooler environment,
and smaller space -without cooling fans. The article states that
one can do routing and switching optically, and provisioning to
carry large quantities of information.
9. Biometrics
Are you ready for retina scans or thumbprint ID banking? If you
want to go really far, you might explore the concept of a DNA-based
central processing unit. The article writer predicts that by the
end of this year you will likely be able to buy a PC with a fingerprinting
reader embedded in the keyboard.
10. Relational databases
An organization of data into tables with each column containing
the values of a data element, and each row representing a record.
The tables are separated and there is a relationship within the
table to allow you to have multiple users but you don't need to
duplicate information. You can tell the database which elements
should appear in a report, and in some cases two or more people
can input at the same time without corrupting the data
Have you any more to offer?
If you are still concerned about your business'
compliance for Y2K, help is near. The Columbia Technology Center
in St. Helens has scheduled a series of "Y2K Community Conversations."
"The purpose of the presentations is to provide an opportunity
for everyone to gain a greater understanding of the potential
impacts from Y2K on the community," said Brunetta Lafara-Lingg,
a volunteer at the Columbia Technology Center
The meetings will be held throughout Columbia County and open
with a video presentation titled "Global Problems with Local
Solutions," prepared by Chuck Lanza of the Miami/Dade County
(Florida) Office of Emergency Services.
Other participants include the Columbia River PUD, Portland General
Electric, West Oregon Electric Co-op, Bonneville Power Admin-istration,
Century Tel, Northwest Natural, US West, St. Helens Community
Federal Credit Union, several area cities, Columbia County, the
Rural Protection Fire District, the police department, 9-1-1 Dispatch,
the American Red Cross and Columbia County Emergency Services.
A question and answer period will follow the presentations.
"Just the simplest of things that are affected are Video
Cassette Recorders. If you use your VCR to record your favorite
shows, they could be recording the wrong show after January 1,
2000," said Brian Vaerewyck, Technology Manager with the
Columbia Technology Center, and moderator for the Y2K Community
Conversations. "We want to make people aware of the (potential)
inconveniences and to be prepared."
All presentations will be free of charge and open to the public.
Handouts will be available at most presentations, and seating
will be available on a first-come, first-served basis.
The Community Conver-sations are scheduled as follows: Rainier,
June 7; Columbia City, June 21; Vernonia, June 28; St. Helens,
July 19. All meetings will begin at 6 pm and the specific locations
will be announced. LCB
Columbia Technology Center
Contact: Brian Vaerewyck, Technology Manager
Address: 375 S. 18th Street, P. O. Box 1149 St. Helens, OR 97051
Telephone: 503/397-1139
e-mail: brian@columbia-center.org
Hours: 10a - 9p, M - Thurs.,
10a - 5p, Friday 9a - 1p, Saturday
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